IndiaScope: U.S.-India Ties in the Trump 2.0 Era
Can the relationship thrive—or will it remain transactional and turbulent?
Given that Trump is known for his penchant for designing foreign policy in accordance with his personal relationships with other world leaders, it was expected that the U.S.- India bilateral relationship would be one that compared favorably with many others. The friendship between Trump and Modi has
long been acknowledged. Indeed, Modi was feted at the White House early on, coming quickly on the heels of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II. Some anticipated that while the Biden administration had somewhat neglected the relationship, or at least failed to accord it the heightened importance it deserved in the Asian sphere, the U.S.-India ties would now become one of the most important bilateral relationships under the new Trump administration.
However, along with many other countries, India learned that being allies of the U.S. would not shield it from being subject to the new and enhanced tariffs that were announced. Indeed, the Indian opposition was quick to point out gleefully that the famed Modi- Trump camaraderie had received a slap in the face. While this may not quite be the case, the increased tariffs did pose heightened tensions that India has thus far navigated diplomatically, offering to reduce some of its own tariffs on goods from India and seeking negotiations on others.
Another curveball to the relationship has come from the administration’s unprecedented pushback on immigrants, both documented and undocumented. Some of the first deportation flights from the U.S. were filled with undocumented immigrants being returned to India. In addition, as the largest bloc of international students in America, Indians were disproportionately targeted for visa revocations and “self-deportation,” to use the Trump administration’s misleading term. News of students being summarily arrested, detained, and removed has caused widespread consternation in India. These are some of India’s brightest and best, and their families often undergo financial hardship to send their children to study abroad. Indians don’t take kindly to what is happening, even if their government’s response is muted.
Because the U.S.-India relationship has become so vital on many fronts for both countries, neither the issue of tariffs nor the immigration crackdown is likely to destabilize it from its firm footing. The strategic aspect of the relationship remains strong as ever, with India’s importance in the Indo-Pacific region and as part of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and U.S.) serving as a counterbalance to China’s rise. Defense ties
have deepened with weapons purchases, and operational cooperation remains in place.
J.D. Vance’s April trip to India solidified key aspects of the relationship, including defense and trade, while aiming for a full trade deal by this fall. The Vance family was seen prominently participating in cultural events, striking a respectful tone and underlining the importance of the relationship. Indeed, Vance emphasized a “new era of collaboration” between the two nations. The devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed 26 lives and left many others injured, happened when Vance was still in India. The response was swift, with India putting the blame squarely on the Pakistan government. The armed clash that followed included missile strikes targeting infrastructure in each country’s territory.
The U.S. was swift to condemn the initial Pahalgam attack, but also issued calls for a measured reaction from India and eventually brokered a ceasefire within days. There is disappointment in India that the Americans have chosen to be diplomatic rather than being vocally supportive of India. Although the U.S. has been increasingly frustrated with Pakistan, and increasingly warm towards India, a dangerous escalation between the neighbors such as this one reminds us that Pakistan—a key U.S. ally during the Cold War—was used to balance the India-Soviet partnership. Although the U.S.-Pakistan relationship these days is murkier, it’s a reminder to India that its stance of strategic autonomy has proven useful in maintaining other powerful allies on its side. In the newly unpredictable global environment, this will continue to be the case.
Tinaz Pavri is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Asian Studies Program at Spelman College, Atlanta. A recipient of the Donald Wells Award from the Georgia Political Science Association, she’s the author of the memoir Bombay in the Age of Disco: City, Community, Life.
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